Renewables Snap back from a lull but Must speed up to Achieve the Targets

The sector of large-scale renewable energy in Australia is rebounding from last year’s slump but needs to significantly lift investment and construction to meet the ambitious energy targets set by the Albanese government for 2030. In fact, the paces of transition must pick up to hit those targets.

The Clean Energy Regulator estimates that Australia will build more than 7 GW of renewable energy capacity this year, more than double the 5.3 GW added in 2023.
“Those statements suggesting it has stalled are demonstrably not true,” said Dylan McConnell, an energy systems researcher at the University of New South Wales. “Things are rolling now, just need to get accelerated.”

This growth is split between household rooftop solar, which remains on course to continue growing at a world-beating pace, and large-scale renewable projects. According to the Clean Energy Council, by the end of the year, Australia could reach more than 25GW of rooftop solar capacity – more than the 21.3GW total capacity of the country’s coal-fired power stations. Since the number began to be recorded, more than 3.7 million homes and small businesses have had solar systems installed.

The only significant rise, though, has been in large-scale solar and wind farm building. After the decline of last year, it is estimated that between 3GW and 4GW will come online this year-ahead of initial forecasts.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said data shows that next year the national grid serving the five eastern states will derive 42 percent of its energy from renewables.

Final investment decisions have moved forward at a rapid pace as well, with 1.8GW of new large-scale projects in the pipeline confirmed in the first half of 2024-alone above last year’s total of 1.6GW in new commitments.

Investment in grid-scale renewable energy fell last year partly because of uncertainty over the timeline for closing coal-fired power plants and the completion of the country’s long-standing renewable energy target. Albanese, however, not increasing the legislated target, pledged to back 25GW of new large-scale solar and wind projects under the goal to hit 82% renewable electricity by 2030.