Prime Highlights:
Health care and government sectors saw the most significant job growth, with health care adding 902,000 jobs and government contributing 440,000 jobs.
A second Trump administration may disrupt growth in health care due to proposed policies on immigration and labor visas, which could exacerbate worker shortages.
The government sector’s future growth could be impacted by potential workforce reductions under Trump’s “Department of Government Efficiency,” led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Key Background:
The U.S. job market in 2024 saw significant employment gains in sectors such as health care and government. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the health care and social assistance sectors created 902,000 jobs in 2024, a figure close to the 966,000 jobs added in 2023. Meanwhile, the government sector added 440,000 jobs, although this growth was slower compared to the previous year’s 709,000.
Health care’s robust expansion has been fueled in part by Covid-related spending and an aging population. Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, noted that the increasing number of retirees and overall population growth have been major factors driving demand in the health care sector.
However, the potential for a second Trump administration to impact the health care industry is significant. Policies such as mass deportations and restrictions on foreign labor visas could lead to labor shortages, especially in a sector that relies heavily on immigrant workers. If the workforce is reduced, it may result in service disruptions and inflationary pressures as employers compete for a smaller pool of available workers.
The government sector also faces uncertainty under a second Trump term. While state-level government positions grew at a faster rate than federal jobs in 2024, Trump’s administration could implement budget cuts and workforce reductions through its proposed “Department of Government Efficiency,” which would be led by tech entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Such cuts could hinder government services and negatively affect the broader economy.
In contrast, sectors like manufacturing and mining, which saw slower job creation in 2024, may experience a revival under Trump’s proposed tariffs. While it remains uncertain how much these tariffs could boost employment in these industries, there is potential for growth. Overall, while the 2024 job market demonstrated growth in health care and government, a second Trump administration could significantly alter employment trends, particularly by creating challenges in high-demand sectors while potentially benefiting manufacturing. The future of wage growth and inflation will depend on balancing corporate profits with increased worker compensation.
